Mafia 4 - Night 2, Deadline 10/7 9pm

[mndsm]

Easy, why defend what you aren't looking at? I admittedly put the spotlight right on myself by trying to make JT a corpse out of the box. I was DAMN sure he was scum too. A push that early is a total risk, and well, I woulda blown it had I gotten my way. But with that in place, scum can be looking pretty innocent, direct the fire elsewhere, and generally just stay under the radar. The question is to that end.... who was doing it? Also, i've just come up with a half baked theory as to why scum got JT. Sure, it makes me look like scum, an that's smart. HOWEVER- what if scum was banking on there being a cop? The cop would have almost guaranteed investigated one of us during the night. Sure it was a crap shoot as to who- but it would have cleared one of the two biggest suspects on day one. No better way to prevent that than to knife one of the people that would have been investigated. To top it all off.... JT woulda been the smart play there, because even if someone DID investigate me, It's pretty damning evidence to have JT wind up dead right off.

 

[Picklz]

I think there may be something to be learned in why JT was whacked, even though there were a lot of people thinking he was scum. I didn't really see him rallying votes or leaning hard on anyone but maybe I missed something. The only explanation I can think of right now is that Tom is also town and they wanted to get town to lynch Tom. But that seems a little too obvious.

In re-reading the posts this is kind of the conclusion I have come to as well Jay, my concern is still that IF Tom is scum, he could have offed JT and most would probably assume that Scum are trying to point the finger at him so they won't notice or act on that. Not 100% sold that's the case but it would be a fantastic play looking at it from Tom's position.

Nate you do realize we are in worse shape now than if we had lynched someone D1, even a Townie? I'm really still not sold Nate is Town - Kris DID appear fairly scummy early, but his post drove a lot of discussion, and he had a decent explanation for it and made some good points/arguments after that. I am leaning towards agreeing with Jay that your comments come off a little like scum, again.

 

[mndsm]

Yeah.... the more I read on Nate... the more scummy he seems to me. I've read this like 3 times trying to back track over JT's corpse an figure out where the difference should have been made. I still can't see it, but I've seen some other things of interest.

 

[Big Nate]

Final Vote Count of Day 1.
JT [1] - Tom
Picklz [1] - Swanny
Tom [0]
Nate [4] - Kris, Picklz, Andy, AJ
AJ [1] - JT
Jay [0]
Andy [0]
Kris [1] - Nate
Josh [0]

OK now I am going to look at this from the from a frame of mind that I am 100% town.

That means that there are 4 people who could be scum. Understanding that scum would love to have offed two townies one by lynching and one by knifing.
Kris - Said he was scum (that doesn't look good i don't care how much conversation it started)
Picklz - has done a very good job of letting others know that a lynch on day one was a good thing. (i agree but would never vote for myself for obvious reasons)
Andy - Jumped right on my band wagon when I voted for Kris. (doesn't look good to do that then just follow the crowd to the next person that looks like they are going to get lynched and so on and so forth)
AJ - Plays dumb well (sorry buddy but you do)

JT was 100% town that is a fact. (Thom voted for him but didn't switch his vote to me when i came don to the end. Going off the fact that I am not scum scum would have loved to lynch me)

Swanny - He seems to be poking around and looking for solid evidence (he is not scum by the same reasoning Thom is not)

Jay - no vote scummy but he could hav e put me (townie) down with it (doesn't act like scum and is trying to put together the puzzle the same as others)

As for why Nate didn't get it, there was a lot of support for Lynching Nate towards the end of Day 1 so either A) Scum expected he has a high probability of getting Lynched day 2, or B) Nate actually is Scum and obviously isn't going to night kill himself. Those are the two most likely scenarios in my mind anyway.

Why do you not have a third scenario that is equally likely. C) Scum did vote for me and was hoping the band wagon jumpers would put me down.

Sorry about that, lol. With the low posting since JT has been cut there are two I'm looking at right now, as it looks like they might be just sitting back and seeing how others react with JT, and that's Swanny & Andy. I'm still curious about Tom, which would also then start to make me think Swanny is not a townie, playing the card low key and cool, and Nate is a townie.

Why do you think I am town?

Nate you do realize we are in worse shape now than if we had lynched someone D1, even a Townie? I'm really still not sold Nate is Town - Kris DID appear fairly scummy early, but his post drove a lot of discussion, and he had a decent explanation for it and made some good points/arguments after that. I am leaning towards agreeing with Jay that your comments come off a little like scum, again.

You can see my conundrum that I can not vote for myself. (not saying the rules do not allow me to but that fact that two townies going down would not be a good thing for town)

 

[Picklz]

Good point Nate, that is also a possibility (option C that you proposed). I need to go back through and re-read everything with that in mind.

If we go back to Day 1 for a moment, nobody knows who is scum and who is town. What we DO know is there are 9 players total, 2 of which are scum. That gives town a 22% chance of hitting one of the two scum players. Today we obviously have a little more information, but nothing concrete, with 8 players total in the game, that gives town a 25% chance of hitting one of the two scum. If we had lynched someone, even a townie, our odds would be 28.5% of hitting a scum on a lynch during Day 2. All that said I don't expect that you should vote for yourself - but I DO find it concerning that only a couple people were seemingly willing to work together to come up with a vote, and that you (Nate) were very adamant that your vote was staying where it is and you wouldn't be responsible for any outcomes.

If I were scum I would see that as being a good route to take, vote early for someone you feel likely may have lynch support by Town so you aren't the deciding factor, then hope others follow suit and lynch the townie.

 

[mndsm]

My lead vote for now is Swanny. He pulled an Andy and started throwing votes out there..... I think the people that are scum were probably LEAST likely to not vote for JT when I had a D1 lynch call, so the trick is going to be putting the votes together for who seemed to hop the bandwagon the most.

 

[AJ]

OK now I am going to look at this from the from a frame of mind that I am 100% town.

That means that there are 4 people who could be scum. Understanding that scum would love to have offed two townies one by lynching and one by knifing.
Kris - Said he was scum (that doesn't look good i don't care how much conversation it started)
Picklz - has done a very good job of letting others know that a lynch on day one was a good thing. (i agree but would never vote for myself for obvious reasons)
Andy - Jumped right on my band wagon when I voted for Kris. (doesn't look good to do that then just follow the crowd to the next person that looks like they are going to get lynched and so on and so forth)
AJ - Plays dumb well (sorry buddy but you do)

lol, I think I'd take that as a compliment. But here I am trying to get some that I think could be (or I thought could be in the past) scum to twist their words around. Thus far sadly I don't think that has worked. I went hard after Tom with this on his beef with JT and it didn't work out well, or it did and Tom's using that againsts us.

Why do you think I am town?

Cause the first time you where looked at as scum you didn't push to right their wrong, if that would of been your focal point I'd think you would be scum, trying to back out of a corner. So, at least how I see it, it's more back to business for you which leads me to townie...

 

[Picklz]

Well thanks for the votes at the end of the day there guys.......

I give me one more day before I get lynched or knifed.

We need to look back and see what JT was looking at. The only way scum would off him is cuz he was onto something. or at least looking down the right road.

I am still not going to back off Kris. He has done little to nothing other then to stir up conversion that in the end almost got a townie lynched.

So Nate is STILL pushing that Kris is Scum, even after rather good and well thought out explanations of his actions. I'm not 100% convinced Kris isn't Scum, but I feel there are others who are far more suspicious. Right now I feel Between Nate, Tom, Andy, and Kris we have our Two Scum, but I cant figure out who. My gut tells me if we Lynch Kris, and he is Town, that Nate could very likely be one of our Scum. Kris did look fairly guilty early, and would be a great target for scum to push a lynch on.

Tom concerns me because he is just crafty enough to night Kill a target that would point the finger directly at him, hoping people wouldn't believe that he would do it. Also Andy and Tom were both voting for JT towards the end of Day 1 so while not really conclusive that is a little suspicious.

 

[Workdawg]

Eddy is replacing Kris, effective immediately. I probably should have done it sooner, but I was trying to give Kris the benefit of a doubt.

Anyway, thank you Eddy.

 

[Z-licious]

I'm in bitches! Call me Kris!

Now give me a few to read everything and get caught up. JT was knifed, what?? Why? He's such a nice guy.

 

[Workdawg]

Current Vote Count (2.1)

JT [0]
Picklz [0]
Tom [0]
Nate [0]
AJ [0]
Jay [0]
Andy [0]
Eddy [0]
Josh [0]


With 8 players alive, 5 votes are needed to lynch!

Deadline to vote: 10/5, 9pm.

 

[Picklz]

Vote: Eddy

 

[WhiteSpy9]

rofl......

Any reason why Kris dropped out?

Vote: Eddy

 

[Workdawg]

I replaced him because he was not posting at all, that is the only reason. It only hurts the game to have someone sitting idle.

 

[WhiteSpy9]

So... who is scum?

 

[mndsm]

Eddy is scum, obviously. On the off chance he isn't I'm no going to vote him right now because then scum would hammer, we'd get a lynch.... and one more town down.

 

[Picklz]

I was hoping that might get SOME kind of reaction from Eddy, maybe he's still reading this thread lol. Also it's still 5 votes Tom.

 

[Big Nate]

Well this is going to be interesting to see what Eddy does. This also changes the dynamic of my vote from vote Kris to

VOTE EDDY

 

[Z-licious]

I was hoping that might get SOME kind of reaction from Eddy, maybe he's still reading this thread lol. Also it's still 5 votes Tom.

I'm still reading through the thread, but why would I have to provide a reaction to your vote with no basis. You're not attacking me so there's nothing to defend against. What's more concerning is Nate's bandwagon vote after Picklz voted for me. Also with 0 reasoning behind it.

 

[Big Nate]

I'm still reading through the thread, but why would I have to provide a reaction to your vote with no basis. You're not attacking me so there's nothing to defend against. What's more concerning is Nate's bandwagon vote after Picklz voted for me. Also with 0 reasoning behind it.

When did I vote?

I think you are reading into my none bold VOTE EDDY as a vote for you.